Turn on any television election night broadcast before 2015, and you’d see constituency results announced one after another with little explanation of the bigger picture.
Programmes at that time did not explore why voters made their choices or which groups were switching parties. With commentators focusing on seat counts rather than voter motivations, coverage gave viewers only a surface-level understanding of what the results meant for the country’s political direction.
About the project
The British Election Study (BES) has tracked voter behaviour at every general election since 1964. The study is led by The University of Manchester from 2013, and in partnership with the University of Oxford and Royal Holloway, University of London since 2019. The BES has transformed how political parties understand and respond to a changing electorate.
Few periods in British politics have been as turbulent as 2013 to 2024. Three general elections, the Scottish independence referendum, and the EU Exit vote reshaped the UK political landscape. To make sense of these dramatic shifts, the BES team built the largest political panel survey ever conducted in the UK, following the same voters through multiple elections.
The BES team developed innovative ways to translate their findings into compelling television. Working closely with ITV producers, they created a new approach to election coverage based on data rather than speculation.
Professor Jane Green is a leading figure in the BES television work. She is Professor of British Politics and Political Science at Nuffield College, Oxford (previously Professor of Political Science at The University of Manchester from 2013 to 2018). Professor Green collaborated with ITV News to bring voter-level insights directly to millions of viewers.
Professor Jane Green says:
Election night coverage can get lost in constituency-by-constituency results. You can’t see the wood for the trees.
Our approach helps viewers understand what’s happening and why people are voting the way they are.
The pioneering ITV collaboration put solid data at the heart of coverage, ending commentator speculation. As a result, viewers could understand what was happening beneath the headlines.
Impact of the project
Bringing data to life on screen
The BES team transformed television election coverage through several innovative approaches.
Beginning in 2015, they integrated their research directly into ITV’s election night programmes, using interactive visual displays to reveal patterns that were not obvious from constituency results.
The displays showed how voters were shifting between parties, as this type of information could not usually be seen from headline results alone. By using the BES-led displays, viewers could understand how parties were winning seats, which kinds of voters were changing their allegiances and why.
BES’s evidence-based approach became particularly effective when challenging misconceptions in real-time.
Professor Green says:
When a politician makes a claim on air, we can immediately show the data that reveals what’s really happening with voters. It cuts through speculation with hard evidence.
One major innovation has been with ITV, which has enabled me to present analysis live at the graphics wall. In several elections, I have delivered all the results analysis presentations. I also conducted a ‘live explainer’ last July, in which I explained the whole election result early, after the exit poll, using BES data. I have now written, produced and presented six separate explainers for ITVX. Last year’s segments were called ‘Election Matters,’ and this year’s are ‘Local Election Matters,’ both of which are available on YouTube.
Additionally, we collaborated closely with ITV’s Paul Brand last year on a four-part election series called ‘Path to ‘24,’ for which I provided analysis, interviews and BES graphics, with Paul and I working together on the themes.
The impact on election broadcasting has been widespread. The ITV News Editor said that BES had been central to their election and referendum programmes, providing unique benefits to viewers. For ITV News, BES played a fundamental role in explaining results in a clear and compelling way, bringing clarity to the most complex issues.
The programme’s election coverage earned nominations for both the Royal Television Society and BAFTA awards, recognition that academic insights had genuinely transformed traditional election broadcasting.
Creating a wider media revolution
The impact of the research now spreads beyond ITV. Across newspapers, radio and online platforms, journalists began turning to the BES for evidence rather than relying on political punditry. The BES research received over 1,500 mentions in mainstream media, 10 times more than in previous years.
The team’s book, ‘Electoral Shocks,’ provided journalists with a new framework for explaining political change. The book demonstrates how major disruptions, from economic crises to referendums, compel politicians to respond in ways that alter voter allegiances.
Now, with more than 130,000 downloads of BES datasets and over 500 academic publications citing their work, the study has become the primary resource for anyone seeking to understand Britain’s evolving political landscape.
Support and recognition
This commitment to evidence-based communication earned Professor Green the Political Studies Association’s Research Communicator of the Year award in 2015. Later, the entire BES team received the prestigious Pippa Norris inaugural prize for their contributions to the field of election studies.
Throughout this time, the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) has provided substantial funding to BES. Recent grants include:
- £2,738,920 for ‘Voters in Context: The British Election Study 2015’ (2013 to 2017)
- £498,490 for enhancing the study during the Scottish independence referendum (2013 to 2017)
- £5,638,909 for the current project, scheduled to run through to 2026
Professor Edward Fieldhouse, Professor of Social and Political Science at Manchester and Principal Investigator for the British Election Study, says:
Without ESRC funding for the data gathering, practically an entire sub-discipline of British politics analysis would not exist.
The media would be limited to aggregate-level polls instead of understanding what’s happening at the voter level.
Looking to the future
The team continues to develop its approach. With Professor Green now serving as President of the British Polling Council, a position she assumed in 2023, the connection between academic research and public understanding remains strong.
Professor Fieldhouse says:
We’ll be running wave-30 of our panel following the 2024 election and completing our book on electoral realignment. We’re also planning a vote validation exercise with the Electoral Commission.
These fresh insights will ensure that media coverage of Britain’s evolving political landscape remains grounded in evidence rather than speculation, enabling viewers to make sense of the political developments that lie ahead.
Find out more
Learn more about the British Election Study.
Read more on Electoral Shocks.
Watch the full election explainers.